Real estate market continues to grow in the fourth quarter of 2023

    In the 4th quarter of 2023, the real estate market in Dubai continued to show its best side. A total of 35,430 properties were sold. This represents an increase of 31.1% compared to the previous year. Of the properties sold, 58% were off-plan projects, which in turn accounted for 66% of the sales volume. The total sales value of the transactions amounts to the equivalent of around CHF 40 billion/euro, which corresponds to growth of 12% compared to the third quarter of 2023.

    After experiencing one of the strongest quarters since 2010, the real estate market looks to be starting to slow down in terms of growth. The Dubai Land Department's estimated property value growth will slow to 3% and 4.5% in 2024 and 2025 respectively and stabilize accordingly.

    Where does the real estate market stand in an international comparison? Where will the journey take us in 2024?

    Quote from the UBS Bubble Index:

    "In Dubai, real real estate prices once again saw double-digit growth. Given the strong income growth and a hot rental market where rental growth has outpaced residential price growth, we see the market as fairly valued. Price momentum is likely to remain strong in the coming quarters, but Dubai is very cyclical and prone to exaggeration."

    As 'connoisseurs' of the local real estate market at an operational level, we can support the above statement. In particular, the last sentence regarding exaggerations and the cycle will certainly be with us in the coming quarters.

    The robust figures underline Dubai's attractiveness for investors. With a positive outlook for 2024, the market remains attractive, driven by strong demand, government initiatives and technology integration.

    The chart below clearly shows that price development over the last 4 quarters has been over 15%, but is still considered 'fair' in relation to absolute prices. This means that although prices have risen, they are still at an attractive level compared to other major cities worldwide. In Central Europe in particular, prices have fallen massively in 2023 compared to 2022 (over the last 4 quarters). Zurich's real estate market is bucking this trend and continues to occupy the top spot worldwide in the UBS study.

    You can download the entire UBS report here: